Possible forex scalp in gbpjpy 30 4 2015

Good morning everyone.

There is a possible opportunity in a forex scalp to gbpjpy pair.

Entry in  182,67 based on micro-divergence

forex scalp gbpjpy

We are ready to take profit in this at 25  pips.

Forex scalp gj

The following are the reactions to today’s FOMC meeting as provided by the economists at 10 major banks along with some views on the USD as provided by the FX strategists at these banks.

BofA Merrill: The FOMC statement is modestly USD positive relative to expectations, as June and September remain on the table for the first hike. Downgrades to the growth outlook were largely priced in, given a recent shift in policy expectations and USD selloff. With the Fed still expecting a growth rebound (as transitory factors subside), data needs to validate their view for a more sustained USD rally given the data dependence of their decision to hike rates. References to the USD in the statement were not materially different: “exports declined” as opposed to “weakened” in March. But the mention of import prices was a new and more explicit reference to the dollar, even as the impact on inflation is seen as transitory. Bottom line: modest USD positive, but data will dictate dollar moves going forward.

SEB: After the GDP report earlier today and the March payrolls three weeks ago it was not surprising to see the Fed significantly downgrading the first paragraph, although the Committee suggested that the weakness in part reflected transitory factors. But since the Fed expects better times ahead an increase in the Fed funds rate is still in the cards. That said, a hike as soon as June is not our main scenario or what the consensus is currently looking for. Our forecast is for a September liftoff. As expected, the calendar guidance was removed. Back in March, the FOMC pledged not to raise interest rates in April – no such promise was extended to June. This is not a sign that the probability of a June hike is rising although it remains on the table; our view is instead that the Fed wants flexibility back. The bank is data-dependent after all.

CIBC: The Fed’s latest statement downgraded assessment of the labour market and GDP, as necessary following the disappointing March payroll figures and Q1 GDP today, suggesting they are further away from being “reasonably confident” that inflation will return to their target over the medium term. While the Fed is citing “transitory factors” for the slowdown in GDP during the first quarter, it also takes a more pessimistic view of the labour market saying not just that job gains “moderated” but that the underutilization of labor resources was “little changed”. The Fed is still looking to be “reasonably confident” that inflation will return to their 2% target over the medium term before raising interest rates, but the more pessimistic assessment for growth and the labor market suggests members are further away from having that confidence than they were in March. Following today’s statement and the weak GDP figures earlier we have shifted back our forecast for the first Fed hike to September, from July previously.

Barclays: As we expected, the Federal Reserve left its policy stance unchanged at the April FOMC meeting. The Fed removed the phrase “the committee judges that an increase in the target federal funds rate remains unlikely at the April FOMC meeting” from the statement and did not replace it with any particular reference to calendar time. In our view, the lack of any specific calendar time suggests June will be a “live” meeting, where rate hike deliberations will begin in more earnest. Our view remains that September is a more likely time for the first rate hike, but we expect several on the committee to argue for a rate hike in June, including Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, who is a voting member in 2015. Fed guidance about rate hikes after mid-year has been a staple of recent FOMC communications, and we read the statement as consistent with this messaging.

Danske: After a general upward trend in US treasury yields this week, yields barely moved on the FOMC statement. The first hike from the Fed is now fully priced in December this year but the path of hikes over the following two years remains extremely subdued. We continue to expect US economic data to show improvement over the coming months and the labour market to continue to tighten. Hence, we stick to our call of a first Fed funds rate hike in September this year, which will, in our view, pave the way for significantly higher rates in the 2-5Y segment of the curve in coming months as the first rate hike draws closer. Looking at past hiking cycles, rates have started to move higher three to four months ahead of the first hike and we think the current cycle will be no different The US dollar has corrected lower recently in a broad-based decline against most major currencies. In particular, the combination of a very stretched speculatively long USD positioning, as indicated by the IMM positioning data, and weak US data has been a negative mixture for greenback. The deterioration in risk sentiment following the weak Q1 GDP data from the US today was also a driver behind the acceleration in USD selling this afternoon. However, the USD has recovered a little following the FOMC announcement, as the statement did not provide much new information and we continue to expect EUR/USD to fall over the coming three to six months on relative monetary policy expectations. A near-term stabilisation in EUR/USD will probably be subject to a general improvement in risk sentiment, while the next leg lower in the cross is likely to depend on positive US data surprises. Historically, the USD tends to strengthen in periods when the Fed stops easing and until it starts to tighten. We see no reason why it should be different this time, particularly as we expect the ECB to continue its quantitative easing programme until at least September 2016.

Credit Agricole: As expected, there were no policy changes announced at today’s FOMC meeting. The Fed funds target range was maintained at 0-0.25%. The FOMC made no changes to its portfolio reinvestment policy. The FOMC sees “the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced.” The key issue for the FOMC, as we see it, is the extent to which the Q1 slowdown in growth is transitory or reflects more persistent factors. We believe that the Fed will want to see convincing evidence that transitory factors were behind much of the slowdown and that the underlying fundamentals suggest that the expected Q2 growth rebound will be sustained with above-trend growth in the second half. Above-trend growth would continue to absorb labor market slack. That should contribute to an acceleration in wages that will further sustain consumer spending and likely put some upward pressure on prices. We see it as highly unlikely that the FOMC would have sufficient evidence to support that scenario until sometime in the third quarter. Based on our macroeconomic outlook, we believe that the most likely scenario for the Fed is to begin the process of rate normalization in September. The risks are currently tilted towards a later rather than an earlier lift-off but a spring growth rebound, solid labor markets and constructive comments from the Fed on the incoming data flow are expected to prepare the markets for a rate hike this fall. The disappointingly weak Q1 real GDP growth (+0.2%) was a mixed picture. Some of the factors behind the slowdown were likely transitory such as the harsh winter weather impact on consumer spending and logistical supply disruptions from the West Coast port slowdown that curbed production. We expect a rebound in current-quarter activity from these transitory depressants. However, the weakness in business investment spending and net exports will likely linger for a while. We project real GDP growth just above 2% in Q2 but accelerating further in the second half to around a 3% growth pace.

NAB: The FOMC statement issued earlier this morning has made it clear that there is no pre-determined timeline for Fed rate lift-off. The Fed is totally data dependent in considering when next to change policy, that data then playing into the Fed’s assessment of progress in their dual mandate of “fostering maximum employment and price stability”. Our assessment is that September remains the next most likely time for the Fed to move. There are two meetings (June 18 and July 30) before the September 18 meeting and it will take time for the Fed to the comfortable that the US economy has not been dislodged from its underlying growth track. How much of the recent softer growth is transitory is yet to play out.

Wells Fargo: Fed officials will want to see the next few months’ indicator performance to better assess the underlying growth trend following the weak first quarter and to gauge whether their outlook of firming GDP growth for the remainder of this year and next remains intact. Shaking off the transitory factors of winter weather and the port disruptions, we believe a moderate rebound is in store for the second quarter as growth in consumer spending and business fixed investment should pick back up. We doubt there is enough time for the economy to rebound in a convincing enough way for the Fed to move in June, but there is still plenty of runway left between now and September. The critical question for the Fed now is how much of the first quarter’s weakness was transitory and how much is longer lasting. This puts more weight on upcoming data, which will soften or harden the Fed’s resolve.

Rabobank: The FOMC statement gave a balanced assessment of the current economic slowdown and the Committee remains very much in a data-dependent mode. However, the balanced and cautious tone in the statement is a far cry from the optimism and (over)confidence that we have seen in previous statements. This suggests that the large majority of doves in the Committee is in no hurry to hike and instead is waiting for solid evidence that the economic recovery can actually deal with a rate hike…The impact of the dollar appreciation is not only holding back economic growth, but also core inflation. Ironically, the strength of the dollar is for a large part caused by expectations of the Fed’s monetary tightening. What’s more, an actual rate hike could lead to further appreciation, giving US exporters hardly any time to adjust to their loss in competitiveness and keeping down core inflation. A premature rate hike would slow down the return of inflation and unemployment to their targets. Therefore, we continue to expect the Fed to delay the first hike to the final quarter of the year.

Deutsche Bank: FOMC statement was balanced and largely as expected. No meaningful slant in either direction that surprises. Only tilts toward not being as dovish as some may have suspected come in: 1) econ “slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory factors” This could equally also be taken as more hawkish since it also infers that some of the slowing is for real/more permanent. More relevant 2). “households’ real incomes rose strongly, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices.” This reflects the 6.2% gain in real disposable income in Q1. All other comments fit with the acceptance that the economy has slowed albeit again partly because of transitory factors. They have also not wanted to completely kill off any prospects of a June tightening as they did with the April meeting, but clearly have not wished to tamper with current market expectations that suggest that probabilities of a June tightening are now negligible.

GBPAUD short forex scalp 29 4 2015

Forex scalp in gbpaud.I am risking some from the 200 pips I earned yesterday in gbpaud in a short forex scalp attempt of the pair to reach yesterday lows.We have a double top in 1,9270

short forex scalp

My audjpy forex scalp trade is in +11 in the time of writing

scalp in audjpy

We might see additional gains for EUR/USD and GBP/USD towards 1.1200 and 1.5500 levels in case the Fed meeting outcome remains dovish.

Key Quotes

“Ahead of this important Fed meeting and its possible consequences the rest of the currencies extended their gains against the Greenback. The Euro almost hit 1.1000 over the past 24 hours also lifted by the changes in the Greek negotiation team. The Cable was also on the rise and is trading around the 1.5350 area this morning, disregarding the decline in the Gross Domestic Product report.”

“Should the Fed appear more dovish in their statement tonight both the Euro and the Cable will have the opportunity to move even more to the upside. The Euro will be looking towards the 1.1200 area as the next stop while the Cable could be looking towards 1.5500 if it receives further lift from Dollar’s decline.

 

Forex trade 28 4 2015

Forex trade in GBPAUD ,AUDJPY

Good evening everyone

Today I have lost the eurjpy trade but I took the gbpaud short breakout from Archemedes box

forex trade breakout

and the audjpy breakout trade.AUDJPY is among the best carry trades and is risk leading indicator.Good news from Australia and Greece produce this optimism.

audjpy carry trade breakout

Both of them closed at 18.00 gmt total 330 pips aprox.

Technical analysis for AUDUSD

Meanwhile, strong Australia economic data over the last couple of weeks has reinvigorated the Australian dollar. The improved rates outlook down under has increased the aussie’s attractiveness to yield seekers. The aussie is improving against most of the majors this week; it was helped this morning by RBA Governor Stevens’ refusal to talk about monetary policy during a speech in Sydney, which resulted in a relief rally in the AUD.

This combination of AUD strength and USD weakness has pushed AUDUSD to an important resistance zone around its 100-day SMA. The pair hasn’t been above this moving average since September last year, and even then there wasn’t a confirmed break. There is also some strong horizontal resistance around the pair’s 100-day SMA (between 0.7920-0.8000) which could add weight to a possible rally in the pair if all of this resistance is broken. From a technical perspective, AUDUSD is looking somewhat strong; there’s bullish divergence between price and RSI on a daily chart are some other tech indicators are also looking strong, but only time will tell…

Forex trade with Archemedes breakout. Ancient Greek Archemedes said give me land to stand and I will move the earth.Archemedes breakout is the same in the forex world.Clearly defines separate days and Tokyo consolidation period.

 

Weekly forex scalping Setups–April27th – May1st

EURUSD – Euro/dollar raise north, but remains under key resistance

The EURUSD moved north again last week but price  still remains under key resistance up near 1.1050 area. This key resistance level at 1.1050 area remains the core level and is the ‘line in the sand’ for bears in the coming days. We will have this level under watch and we will wait for a retest of that area in the coming days.

We are looking to get short on  a price action sell signal and forex scalping around 1.1050 area.

eurusd forex scalping setups

GBPUSD – Sterling/dollar strength persists

The GBPUSD haven’t shown any reversal signials in the resistance area  1.5140 – 1.5200. We are sure that  at some point pound will produce a valid sell signal, but for now we are siting on our hands. On the other hand, we will play the long side if price  build a base and this short-term up trend holds support in the 1.4750 – 1.4880 area, we will watch this  area for long signals and forex scalping as well.

gbpusd forex scalping setups

insider information about EURUSD

Sell EUR/USD At Current Levels: Here Is Why? – Barclays

Despite the lack of material progress between Greece and its European creditors, the EUR has been rather resilient.

Yet, Barclays Capital notes that market sentiment towards Greece remains fragile and as such continues to expect the EUR to exhibit a high beta to political developments both on the upside but higher so, on the downside.

“The cash troubles for Greece are likely to remain in the coming weeks and the next official check point includes the payment of €1.8bn in wages and pensions at the end of April and the €200mn IMF interest payment on 1 May,” Barclays argues.

“The next scheduled Eurogroup meeting is on 11 May but we do not exclude the possibility of an intra-meeting Eurogroup, if one proves necessary,” Barclays adds.

Greece aside, FX market participants are likely to re-focus on data next week.

“We forecast euro area “flash” HICP inflation (Thursday) to have edged up to 0.0% in April from -0.1% previously and core HICP inflation to have increased to +0.7% from +0.6%, with downside risks attached to our call. Moreover, we expect German retail sales to moderate further (-0.2% m/m: consensus: 0.4% m/m) and look for a further pick-up in money growth, M3 and a normalization of bank lending flows (Wednesday),” Barclays projects.

All in all, Barclays thinks that low inflation and subdued inflation expectations are expected to keep the ECB committed to successfully completing its QE program at least until September 2016, adding downward pressure to the EUR.

On the USD front, Barclays notes that it’s a blockbuster week in the US with the FOMC meeting (Wednesday) and key data releases – consumer confidence (Tuesday), advanced estimate of Q1 GDP (Wednesday), Chicago PMI (Thursday), ISM manufacturing (Friday).

“We expect the FOMC statement to likely convey that the committee views data in Q1 as an aberration and sees economic growth proceeding at a moderate pace. A more constructive Fed is likely to support the USD as well as weigh on risk appetite, in our view. Our rates strategists maintain the view on front to intermediate curve flatteners,” Barcalys projects.

“We expect economic data to be roughly neutral for the USD. We are in line with consensus on Q1 GDP (Barclays and c.f.: 1% q/q saar), slightly below consensus on consumer confidence (102.5 vs. c.f. 103) and Chicago PMI (50.0 vs. 51.0) and slightly above on ISM manufacturing (52.0 vs. c.f. 51.0),” Barclays adds.

“We re-iterate our conviction in being short EURUSD at current levels,” Barclays advises.

 

 

forex scalping strategy 24 4 2015

Forex scalping strategy

A forex scalping strategy I use is to take trades with bullish flags specially when these develop in the London open

We have optimism in Eurozone concerning Greece since the meeting between Tsipras and Merkel last evening so,we have long ej in the London open

I will close this forex scalping in a while in 129,99

Below is the two charts I am using in 30 seconds and 10 seconds from Northern lights

forex scalping strategy
forex scalping strategy

Northern Lights forex scalping software

This is a contrarian aproach to Barclays Trade Of The Week: Sell EUR/JPY
19 Apr 2015 18:12 EDT
Currency investors should consider selling EUR/JPY this week, advises Barclays Capital in its weekly FX pick clients.

“We remain bearish on EURJPY from a fundamental viewpoint given the elevated uncertainty around Greece’s solvency and increased risks of failed negotiations with the Eurogroup on 24 April,” Barclays says as a rationale behind this call.

In line with this view, Barclays recommends selling a 1-week 25-delta EURJPY risk reversal (call sale/put purchase) for a cost of 4.4bp (strikes: 126.90 and 129.94, atmf =128.49, atm vol = 12.42%, spot ref = 128.48).

AND THE ANALYSIS FOR EURO TODAY FROM SEB GROUP TODAY

EUR/USD: Following the triangle path. After an initial dip the pair continued to trade higher (within wave c of the triangle). The bullish key day reversal candle (here seen as an upside continuation pattern) argues for more buying within shortly so look for a similar price action as yesterday with an initial dip (i.e. intraday traders should be looking to pick up a few euros on this dip 1.0789-75) and thereafter another move higher. The triangle scenario calls for the move higher to stall in the 1.0940-area.

forex scalping software 23 4 2015

Northern Lights Forex scalping software can help you take high probability trades in high volatility periods.

You can observe in the below chart the period of New York open with the initiall stop hunting and then the breakout in the top of the range.

The chart is 30 second chart in order to see what others don’t see.

forex scalping software eurjpy 30 seconds chart
eurjpy 30 seconds chart

On the daily level the EUR/JPY pair rose during the course of the day , but remains negative overall. Even though we rally, you can see that we gave back part of the gains as soon as we came close to anything that could be thought of as resistance. We believe that there is resistance all the way to the 131.50 level, so really at this point in time we are simply waiting for a resistive daily candle to sell. We don’t really have that, but we think sooner or later we will get that opportunity and we will react immediately.

forex scalping software eurjpy daily
eurjpy daily

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