forex scalping 8 9 2015
forex scalping is not easy.
Today I felt like the man going to the casino feeding the slot machine and the time he gets disappointment and leaves his place the next guy hits the jackpot.
This thing happened in the morning with eurjpy and gbpjpy trades. The moment they reversed I was so tired to follow.They gave 100 pips plus.
In the European morning I have took a wrong short trade in gbpusd and I sweat to close it to breakeven.
Then in the afternoon I took a long signal in eurjpy waited the retracement. Enter in the trade in correct position . Then the pair three times it almost touched the first target of 10 pips with 9.5 pips and dropped.
The third time I closed it to breakeven and saved my stop loss since it dropped 40 pips entering in a range period.
So I gave up for the day at least I didn’t ended red and wrote a part in the video about consistent profitability.
the Law of large number and how it impacts your trading
Before anything else, you must understand the law of large number.
The law of large numbers is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed. – Probability Theory
For a trader, this means you need a large number of trades for your edge to play out.
You will not be consistently profitable every week, taking 5 trades a month.
Because according to the law of large number, results are random in the short run, but will be closer to the expected value in the long run.
Focus on whether what you are doing is right, not on the random nature of any single trade’s outcome. – Richard Dennis
What is consistency?
Since the law of large number requires a certain number of trades for your edge to play out, how does it impact your trading?
forex scalping – Trading at very high frequency, like 10,000 trades a month. You can expect to be profitable in most of the months, or even everyday like Virtu Financial.
Day trader – Trading an average of 3 – 5 times a day, you can expect to be profitable in most of the quarters.
Swing/position trader – Trading an average of 5 – 15 times a month, you can expect to be profitable in most of the years.
The more trades you put on during a shorter period of time, the faster your edge will play out.
But without an edge in the markets, the more trades you put on, leads to blowing up your account even faster.
The pairs I watch every day