Category Archives: Trade ideas

When to close forex trading positions ? 15 9 2015

When to close forex trading positions ?

When to close forex trading positions? The most of the times I close open positions around London close.I sleep better at nights.

Rarely as yesterday I had open position during the Tokyo session.

In these cases I close them few minutes before Frankfurt opens.Reversals and stop hunting will follow I don’t want to be in.

Yesterday trading was difficult for the three pairs I watch.

GBPUSD produced a nice signal with over 150 pips move south but with no retracement.

EURJPY produced a long signal with retracement but took in demo only.

Finally GBPJPY was ranging all day and since I was waiting for a breakout a took the retracement of a short signal which generated in DOW open.

Trade went bad and lost 25 pips. Left the charts open and found a pivotal point, a third touch in the upper area of the gbpjpy range and took an intraday trade with stable stop approx 20.30 EST European time.

This trade was left open during Tokyo session and produced 48 pips.

We made 23 net pips for 15 of September and closed it 20 minutes before Frankfurt open.

The three pairs we watch every day with remarks and trades

GBPUSD

forex scalping gbpjpy

GBPJPY

1592015 gbpjpy

EURJPY

forex scalping eurjpy

 

 

forex scalping intraday trading 3 9 2015

forex scalping intraday trading 3 9 2015

The day was difficult initially because the two first trades hit stop loss.

GBPUSD and GBPJPY had volatility during the night and they didn’t produced  fresh signals in the London open.In addition we had pound news.

EURJPY on the contrary had a very narrow range during Tokyo and ranging for long hours.

The pair produced a fresh signal a few minutes before London open so I waited carefully for a retracement.

The retracement came and I enter the short trade.The minutes was passing and the pattern I call crocodile formed the bollingers in the trigger chart contracted and inner support and resistances formed .

The breakout was eminent and it would be a large one after so many hours of ranging.

The pair violated the resistance to the upside and due to high probability of breakout I went long to the fresh long signal loosing 5 pips in the first trade  .I was taking also a counter trend trade to my higher time frame chart.Some minutes passed and the momentum wasn’t there.The pair started to fall slowly ,the pair pierced the support inside the range again and decided to try for third and last time short again .The procedure of the three trades took approx one and half hour.

Placed the stop loss ten pips above and closed the platform .

I have checked again in London close to find 162 pips in my intraday trade.Finally closed 158.

Thursday have statistically very good intraday trades and they are consider from the trending days of the week.

eurjpy trigger and main chart with marked trades on them and remarks

forex scalping eurjpy 3 9 2015

Main chart eurjpy

forex scalping main chart

 

The other to pairs I watch daily gbpusd and gbpjpy

forex scalping gbpusd

forex scalping gbpjpy

 

forex scalping 28 8 2015

forex scalping-ideal time duration for a scalping trade

Fridays the trade is weird ,ranging choppy and might hav3e a lot of surprises.

The two jpy pairs we are watching were not ideally so we concentrated in pound dollar during the European session.

Pound dollar gave a short signal and we waited with patience to take a breath backwards in order to enter.

Our entry was almost perfect two pips out from the maximum breath.

The forex scalping target achieved 6 minutes after the entry which is the ideal time for the first scalping target.Five to ten minutes for the first target is the ideal time duration for a forex scalping trade.

The higher time frame saw also a broken trendline and our entry was almost in the testing level.

The trade then converted in intraday and the trailing stop start locking profit.

The momentum was extremely good and before we count thirty minutes we were counting approx 60 pips.

A get out of trade divergence appeared but we were waiting a support to form in our trigger chart  order to close the trade.

Then price pierced the spine of northern lights and set course in the median trendline were our trailing stop was.

Trailing stop then hit and we finished for our trading Friday with approx 40 pips for our intraday trade.

All was recorded in the video ,have a nice weekend

The three pairs we watch every day and their signals

GBPUSD

FOREX SCALPING GBPUSD

GBPJPY

forex scalping gbpjpy 28 8 2015

EURJPY

forex scalping eurjpy

forex scalping 10 8 2015

forex scalping in the European morning

Today we are in holidays so we took a  quick scalp in gbpusd in the  European morning.

A short signal formed in our main chart so we were waiting a step back by 20 pips approximately.

In the auxiliary chart a fake north breakout happened and then the price moved south. We wait for a short term support and then in a step back motion the price moved to the equilibrium line offering us a chance to enter with a limit order for short scalp by ten pips at least.

The order ignited and shortly afterwards the ten pips achieved.It was so quick that the breakeven move of our third part order didn’t happened.

We did move our stop manually and the third part closed shortly afterwards by offering + pips.

You can watch the whole move and the trade in the following video.

 

forex scalping

 

 

AUDUSD trade setup forming? 14 7 2015

AUDUSD trade setup forming?

AUDUSD – Maybe  a short-term low!

audusd daily chart

Last week’s break below prior support near 0.7596 followed by a quick reversal and minor daily pin bar at the lows 0,7373, this fact saw that bears might be losing the battle, at least for the time been. This week, we may see a bullish retracement back above that key level we broke near 0.7590. We are seeking for a 4 hour or daily chart buy signal near last weeks low as confirmation to get long for quick pop back up as shorts look to cover.

forex scalping software adjusted renko chart

This type of chart can be used as main chart for signial entries

forex scalping software renko chart

insider trading

AUDUSD: Weak Chinese Data Tonight Could Expose .7200 Next

As my colleague Kathleen Brooks noted earlier today, tomorrow is a “D-Day” of sorts for global traders, with major economic events taking place in China, Greece, and the US (not to mention the BOC meeting in Canada). In terms of chronology (and potentially, market impact as well), China’s quarterly data dump is on the top of traders’ minds.

The world’s second-largest economy will release data its Q2 GDP growth, Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment, and Retail Sales at 10:00 ET tonight (2:00 GMT tomorrow), with traders keenly focused on the GDP release in particular. Readers will note that Chinese GDP has declined steadily over the last few years, ratcheting down from 7.8% year-over-year growth in October 2013 down to an expected 6.9% reading this quarter, which would represent the lowest reading since the depths of the Great Financial Crisis in Q1 2009.

The government has laid out an explicit growth target of 7.0% over the course of the entire year, and any quarterly readings below that level could shake the market’s confidence in the ability of China’s ruling party to manufacture consistent growth, especially in the wake of four separate interest rate cuts since November. Beyond the marquee GDP report, traders will closely watch the other releases to see if they confirm signs of a gradual slowdown or show any hints of a stronger-than-expected economy.

Technical View: AUDUSD

China is Australia’s most important trading partner, so it makes sense to focus on the Australian dollar in the wake of tonight’s high-impact releases. Since peaking above .8100 in mid-May, AUDUSD has shed nearly 800 pips peak-to-trough, representing a nearly 10% drop in the value of the commodity currency. Bears were finally able to put a tourniquet on the bleeding wound last week, and rates have since consolidated above support near the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the April-May rally at .7390.

As it currently stands, there is no strong reason to suspect the recent pause is anything other than an oversold pause within the context of a still-healthy downtrend. In that vein, the MACD continues to trend lower below both its signal line and the “0” level, and the RSI has bounced out of oversold territory. According to this line of thought, uniformly weak data from China could jolt the bears back to life, with a potential break below the .7390 level opening the door for another leg down toward the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement around .7200. Only a break back above key previous-support-turned-resistance at .7550 on strong Chinese data would call the near-term bearish bias into question.

forex scalping

micro consolidation and breakout in Northern Lights trigger forex scalping chart

Euro bulls see the light 10 7 2015

Euro bulls see the light

After many months of uncertainity and drawbacks Greeks deside to stay in the eurozone and submit reforms

The move started last night from Tokyo open and lasted untill New York open

forex scalping software main chart

euro bulls

The EURJPY is a big gainer in trading today – rising by 2.29% today.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the lower global had the price looking to break the 100 day MA at the 133.50 level (haven flows). Today the price is back up testing the 200 day MA at the 137.036. Stocks and more confidence on Greece are helping the cause.
2
When the price trades between the 100 and 200 bar MA and those MA are a distance apart, I call it trading between the Goal Posts.  Eventually, there is a break, but until then (with momentum), the price may be more inclined to ping pong between the extremes.

Zooming into the shorter term intraday picture by looking at the 5 minute chart, the price is now seeing a little more weakness in the last few minutes and is down testing the 100 bar MA at the 136.60 level (blue line in the chart below).   A move below that level will look toward the 136.413 (38.2% of the last trend move higher) and the 136.147 will be eyed (50% of the same move).  .

3
The goal posts defined by the 100 and 200 day MA are wide. The market seems to be more happy trading between them for the time being  Eventually we will get that break.   In the meantime, take the technical clues from the shorter term chart. The 5-minute chart is still more bullish above the 100 bar MA.  A break below may change some of the bias, to the downside.  Watch the MA for that clue.

Insider trading

Here Is How To Trade Greece’s End-Game In FX – BNPP
09 Jul 2015 23:25 EDT

In its last week’s FX note to clients, BNP Paribas recommends selling EUR/JPY as the best FX play to trade the outcome of the Greek Referendum. Today, BNPP is out with its game-plan to trade this weekend’s eurozone leaders’ summit which BNPP sees as the end-game for Greece.

The stakes are high for this weekend:

“The stakes are high for this weekend’s eurozone leaders’ summit. The message to Greece is clear: a deal must be reached or it leaves the eurozone. This situation is likely to produce a binary outcome for markets, including FX. We assess the best ways to trade this outcome over the weekend,” BNPP notes.

We have now come to the end of the road:

“We have seen many ‘deadlines’ during the Greek crisis, but this time we seem to have come to the end of the road and the creditors have, for the first time, presented Sunday as a firm deadline. The decision to invite all 28 countries to deal with the Greek crisis at the EU summit on Sunday is also unprecedented,” BNPP argues.

1. A Deal. Sell EUR relief rallies against USD, GBP:

“This scenario produces a relief rally across most asset classes. European equities would rally and peripheral spreads would narrow. It is unlikely the EUR would appreciate broadly as it is difficult to argue that the single currency is trading at a discount to valuation. Outcome 1 would provide a catalyst for the re-establishment of EUR-funded carry trades,” BNPP advises.

“Accordingly, the EUR should depreciate, especially against higher yielders such as the USD and GBP. A clear exception would be EURCHF, which is likely to rally in this scenario. The CHF has served as a safe-haven – as indicated by the net long exposure of +24.,” BNPP projects.

2. No Deal. Sell EUR/JPY:

“This is the scenario the market fears…We view that EURJPY shorts would perform even better in this scenario, as an anticipated delay to Fed tightening would weaken the USD,” BNPP advises.

AUDJPY – Aussie/yen pin bar sell signal

AUDJPY – Aussie/yen pin bar sell signal

AUDJPY – Aussie/yen pin bar  sell signal, forex scalping opportunities while the pair is falling

The AUDJPY moved up to the resistance and previous breakdown level near 95.00  before falling lower into the day’s close and forming a bearish pin bar  sell retracement signal. There was also a 1 hour pin bar sell signal at this level .We  see price continue lower from here as long as it holds under 95.00 resistance.

It seems that JPY is the strongest safe heaven currency for the time been

audjpy pinbar

insider trading

AUDJPY: Traders YE(ar)N for a Safe Haven

Greece’s debt drama stretched further into its third act today, with optimists still holding out hope that a last-second bailout deal could be cobbled together. Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has already categorically confirmed that Greece won’t make its payment today, but there were some hopeful signs from the Mediterranean nation. Despite harsh rhetoric over the weekend, Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker has apparently offered a last-minute solution to Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in exchange for the government endorsing a “yes” vote (to the bailout offer) in Sunday’s referendum. The Syriza party is already on record supporting a “no” vote, but hope springs eternal for a last-second pivot.

One way or another, more uncertainty and hand-wringing is almost certain heading into this weekend’s election, and the safe-haven Japanese yen has been in demand as a result. The widely-watched USDJPY pair dropped down to test previous-resistance-turned-support at 122.00 in today’s early European session, but has yet to fill this weekend’s big bearish gap. For that reason, a pair like AUDJPY could present one of the better ways to play any Greece-induced risk aversion over the course of this week.

Technical View: AUDJPY

Looking to the chart, AUDJPY’s big weekend gap took the pair below key previous support at 94.50, but rates have now retraced back up to test that level and fill the gap. The pair’s 50-day MA comes in at 95.00 and could also provide resistance in the same general zone. At the same time, the MACD is trending lower and has crossed below the “0” level for the first time in over two months, suggesting that the momentum has now shifted in favor of the bears. Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI indicator has dropped to a new 2-month low of its own after a clear bearish divergence.

As we go to press, AUDJPY sits at a very precarious position: the big technical breakdown and bearish secondary indicators hint at the potential for more weakness, but a break back above the 50-day MA around 95.00 would shift the outlook back to neutral. If we do see the unit roll over off 94.50 – 95.00 resistance, bears may watch for a move back down to yesterday’s panic low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 92.50.

 

Pound is strong above key support 11-6-2015

Pound is strong above key support

GBPUSD – Sterling/dollar is staying strong above the  key support  down near 1.5170. We will be buyers on weakness  above that 1.5170 support in the coming sessions. You can watch the 1 hour, 4 hour or daily charts for buy signals .Forex scalping intraday trades possible.
 gbpusd

Offers 1.5480 1.5500 1.5530 1.5550 1.5580 1.5600

Bids  1.5440-45 1.5425 1.5400 1.5380 1.5365 1.5345 1.5330 1.5300

GBPUSD: Having followed through higher on Wednesday, further bullishness is envisaged. This development leaves the pair targeting further upside towards the 1.5600 level where a break will aim at the 1.5650 level followed by the 1.5700 level. A break will target the 1.5750 level where a violation will aim at the 1.5550 level and possibly higher towards the 1.5600 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, immediate support lies at the 1.5450 level where a break if seen will aim at the 1.5400 level. A break of here will turn attention to the 1.5350 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.5300 level. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its upside bias on correction

forex scalping cadjpy

Northern Lights chart CADJPY trade we gave yestewrday live is in +41 pips now

Rising triangle breakout 10 6 2015

Rising triangle breakout cadjpy

Rising triangle breakout in cadjpy 240 min

Here’s a setup that I’ve been watching for sometime: a rising triangle on CAD/JPY. Now that it’s broken to the upside, is it an opportunity to buy with minimum stop loss.cadjpy breakout
Over the course of April and May, we saw the major psychological level of 100.00 hold as resistance, at least until last week when we saw a better-than-expected jobs report from Canada. Now that 100.00 is broken, will momentum buyers hop in to play this pair long?With the longer-term trend on the yen continues to be bearish (BOJ likely to continue huge quantitative easing program), and the recent Canadian jobs data could convince the Bank of Canada to hold off on a rate cut.

Of course, there are risks to the downside, and probably the biggest one that I can see for this pair is possibly another fall in the oil markets (Loonie has a strong correlation to oil prices), likely on emerging market demand (especially China). But I don’t think we’ll see another big shock in oil prices any time soon; if anything, demand could rise later from the U.S., typical behavior during the Summer season.

So, I’m looking to play this “break-and-retest” setup at a major psychological level, with the higher “lows” supporting the argument that buyers are still firmly in control. My stop will be a small one  and my target will be the most recent swing high on the higher time frames, last seen in December 2014.

Long  position CAD/JPY at 100.00, max stop at 99.42, max profit target at 105.00

forex scalping software chart of cadjpy with breakout and ranging boxesforex scalping softwareforex scalping brainwave entrainment

Weekly setups in Majors 8 6 2015

Weekly setups in Majors 8 6 2015

Weekly setups in eurusd,gbpusd,nzdusd

As we said on Friday about the eurusd pinbar on the daily the pair bounced from resistance and fell.There is potential for more south movement this week to to the next support area near 1,820 area.If you miss this move wait for a rally in the midle of pinbar and short it there from 1,1300 to 1350

weekly setup eurusd

British pound is consolidating after it touched the support in 1,5169.We are looking for a price action signal in 1.5170 area this week. weekly setup gbpusd

We will sell rallies in nzdusd  between 0,71865 and 0,72765 this week

weekly setup nzdusd

insider trading

EUR/USD: Correction Complete; USD/JPY: Interim Target Achieved – Westpac
08 Jun 2015 00:57 EDT

Friday’s EUR/USD close completed a bearish 3 day pattern, confirming the end of the recent upward correction, notes Westpac.

“Target retest of 1.0800/50,” WP projects.

EUR/USD: Correction Complete; USD/JPY: Interim Target Achieved - Westpac-2-png
Turning to USD/JPY, WP notes that it interim target achieved at 125.60/90.”MT Momentum bias remains positive. Close above 125.70 targets LT trend line at 127.30/50,” WP argues.

Risk sentiment has been unstable of late, mainly on the back of rising Fed rate expectations. Friday’s stronger than expected US labour data should reinforce the view that the Fed is considering higher rates in September. While such prospects should keep the USD in demand, they should come to the detriment of liquidity expectations and investors’ appetite for risk assets too. Nevertheless, from a broader angle further improving global growth expectations should compensate for falling liquidity expectations.

Elsewhere, we remain of the view that the EUR should be sold on rallies. While Greece-related uncertainty is likely to keep demand for EUR-denominated assets muted, the ECB made clear that QE will run its course regardless of improving growth and price developments.

This suggests that there is additional room of diverging Fed-ECB monetary policy expectations to the detriment of EUR/USD.

Ahead today it will be quiet in terms of market moving data releases. If anything the main focus will be on speeches by ECB members and ongoing developments as related to Greece.